These are all calls looking several months out, 4 to 18 months from today (8/30/2024). I think we are on the verge of a major stock crash, likely to happen in September, maybe October 2024. I think we are already in a recession, and will see the major stock indices drop 30-45% in the next 6 to 8 months. Five of the Magnificent 7 stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google (Alphabet), Facebook (Meta), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) are now down roughly 10% to 50% from their all time highs. These two, Apple and Meta (Facebook) are still hanging in there, just off their highs. For now. Since I see a major downturn coming, I think it's a really good time to sell these:
Apple- $ 229.00
Facebook (Meta)- $ 521.31
(with today's prices, as I'm writing this post)
I think these stocks will hit the long term bottoms in the next 4 to 8 months. The recession will lead to another major bailout, probably after the election, which will pump new money back into the economy. That influx will start stocks rising again, my guess is sometime between December 2024 and April 2025. When these stocks bottom out, several months from now, it will be a good time to buy them for the long term again.
With crypto part way into Crypto Spring, but stalled by the recession and economic slowness, the crypto coins for three metaverses have dropped to ridiculously low prices. I'm looking at these as a something to buy now and be willing hold for at least 9 to 18 months. Once new money gets injected back into the economy (after the inevitable bailout caused by the recession/economic crisis) Bitcoin will eventually start rising again. When that happens, when Bitcoin moves above $75,000 per BTC, and keeps going, it will be time to start keeping an eye on these cryptos. I think APE, SAND, and MANA can easily go 10X from these current prices, maybe higher. It would be smart to take some profits around the 3X to 5X point on these. If you know how it safely buy and hold cryptos, I think it's a great time to buy these three cryptos:
Apecoin (APE)- $ .64 (64 cents per token)
Decentraland (MANA)- $ .27 (27 cents per token)
Sandbox (SAND) - $ .25 (25 cents per token)
I also think it's a good time to pick up Solana. It's had a good run, but with its popularity for NFT's (which will also come back in a big way, when the big money starts sloshing around the system), but I think Solana could kind of turn into a "new Ethereum," and could double, and maybe even run up to $1,000 or more, before this next crypto bull run ends.
Solana (SOL) - $ 137.92
These are just my thoughts. Always do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions, and contact any professionals needed. Read the Disclaimer linked above.
The Big Picture right now is that we seem to be sliding into the visible part of a recession that probably started in October or November of 2023. Remember, especially you Millennials and Gen Z people, recessions are officially called months or years after they happen.
Here's where we are now. The stock markets appear to have peaked around July 11th or so. That could be a short correction, but it's looking pretty serious so far, in the context of everything else going on. The unemployment rate is beginning to tick up. The official inflation measurements have been heading sideways or slightly down. Several different major businesses, from fast food to retailers to drug stores, have announced their customers are running out of money, and are seriously looking for deals on nearly everything, even food. The Fed (Federal Reserve) was even hinting that they might lower lower interest rates at the recent FOMC meeting in late July. Those and many other things signal a recession is imminent. By imminent, I mean that we've been in a recession for months, and the powers at be will have to acknowledge it soon, it will become visible to everyone, the "Oh shit! We're in a recession" moment.
When we head into a recession, officially, and The Fed lowers interest rates, the stock market generally heads down, and the price of gold usually goes with it, for a while. I think that's about where we are now, as the gold price topped $2,500 today. I think gold is having a last hurrah before the shit storm really hits.
Now, if you buy gold to hold it forever, which is a very smart thing to do, then don't sell it. But let's say you had the urge to buy gold back in late 2018, when it dropped down to around $1,200- $1,250 per ounce. Let's say you bought two ounces then. The price has basically doubled, maybe a bit less after the premium you paid over spot price. If you sell one of those two ounces, then you got your money back. The remaining ounce of gold has been paid for. In effect, it's free, you have nothing in it. You can sell half of your gold, and put that money into some other investment.
If you missed the 2018 drop, like most people, but bought gold a couple of years ago, when it around $1950 an ounce, you're up around $500 per ounce, roughly 25%. You can sell a bit of it, get some of your money out, and invest that money in something else. This reduces the amount per ounce that you have in the remaining gold, and frees up some money for another investment.
My thinking is that gold may go up a bit more, to maybe $2,550 per ounce or so, MAYBE. But we'll see more economic crises happen soon, and the recession should become completely obvious, in September or October 2024. When that happens, stock will drop a lot, and gold will head back down for a while, too. In addition, we will likely see a bit of deflation, actual falling prices on many items, in late 2024, or early 2025. This is another reason the price should drop. At that point, it will again be a pretty good time to buy gold (and quality stocks), when they hit bottom. All of this DOES NOT apply to silver, which seems to be on its own track right now, and is off its highs.
Again, these are my personal opinions. Do your own research, due diligence, and consult any professionals needed before making any investment decisions. Also, read my Disclaimer, linked above.
Here's the longest podcast/interview with two of the Board Ape Yacht Club founders, Gargamel and Gordon Goner, on Full Send podcast. This is nearly an hour and a half long, and the best interview I've seen with these guys, though it's a year old right now.
Starting with the launch of Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT's in the spring of 2021, they put out other NFT series, bought Crypto Punks and Meebits, and then created the Otherside gaming and NFT metaverse. The Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT's were launched in April of 2021, and, according to Google, Yuga Labs, now just over three years old, has a $ 4 billion market cap. Apecoin is the crypto coin they created as a currency inside the Bored Ape/Otherside ecosystem. Unlike a LOT of cryptos out there, the crew at Yuga has been actually building and creating a whole variety of projects, a solid ecosystem, and are actually focused on building a real community, and not just saying that like many crypto projects just looking to get rich quick. Do your own research to find out more about Apecoin, Bored Ape Yacht Club, and Yuga Labs.
My first investment idea here on White Bear Investment Ideas blog is to buy Apecoin.
Apecoin is the Yuga Labs crypto for Bored Ape Yacht Club and Otherside. As I'm writing this, Apecoin costs 61 cents per unit. You can buy it on crypto exchanges, like any other crypto. Always use safe practices when buying crypto, and there will be a gas fee charged as well, so keep that in mind. After buying any crypto, you'll want to transfer it to a hard wallet for safety. If you don't know how to do that, get online and learn how to buy crypto safely, should you choose to buy some.
Why I like Apecoin: I liked Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT's, just for the pictures of the apes. I was just starting to learn about crypto and NFT's in the fall of 2021, and the Bored Ape NFT's had gone up from a $200 mint price to a floor price of around $25,000 to $30,000 per Ape NFT. The highest price paid for a Bored Ape NFT is $3,408,000. Unlike most NFT's, anyone who buys a Bored Ape NFT also owns the Intellectual Property for that APE, and a number of people have done all kinds of projects using their Bored Apes.
The time frame: I think Apecoin will hit $6-$7 or higher by mid to late 2025, or maybe early 2026. This is a buy now, forget about it, and hold for a year or more investment idea.
Where I see Apecoin going: My general outlook is that, right now, in early August 2024, is that we are heading into a major recession. I see stocks heading down through most of the second half of 2024, and crypto may drop a bit more, too. But I think crypto, overall, is pretty bottomed out already. Bitcoin was at $54K yesterday, and has bounced back up to around $62,000 today.
With the recession, interest rates will start going down over the next year, as will inflation. The banking system/economy will hit a serious crisis point, and the major bailouts will start. At some point, The Fed will start buying assets like U.S. treasuries again, and will work to createand pump new money into the system again. The Fed will do this in attempts to get the slowing economy going again. Once that happens, money will flow into stocks again (early to mid 2025?) and then into crypto. When the money supply starts growing again, a bunch of money will flow into Bitcoin, and this current crypto bull market will head up again.
After BTC, Eth, and the major cryptos start heading up again, flippers and investors will start going deeper into crypto alt coins/shit coins, and a whole bunch of alt coins will start shooting up in price. Apecoin, backed by all the actual products Yuga Labs has created, and is creating, will shoot up.
Apecoin peaked at about $27.90 per coin shortly after the mint. Then it dropped and hovered from about $4 to $7 per coin through much of 2022. My outlook is that Apecoin should easily pop up to $6 to $7 per coin in the later part of this crypto bull cycle. So that's 10X to 12X rise from today's price. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apecoin pop to $15 to $20 or more in late 2025 or 2026. But I think $6 to $7 per coin is a completely reasonable price once money flows into the economy, and crypto, again.
So that's my first investment idea on this blog. As always, do your own research and due diligence, and contact anyone professionals needed before making investment decisions. Read the Disclaimer, linked above.
I do not own any Apecoin at this point, mostly because I'm homeless, and can't even open a crypto account for the time being. I do not have any personal or business connection with Yuga Labs, Bored Ape Yacht Club, or any of the people involved with these projects.
Investing in stocks, bonds, precious metals, homes, businesses, commercial buildings, crypto coins, NFT's, collectibles, and other investments that may be written about in this blog, are high risk activities, and you can easily lose money. Please do your own due diligence to learn about these markets, items, and any other potential investments written about in this blog. This blog is for entertainment and educational purposes only, and nothing I write or say should be taken as advice. Consult experts in any area needed before making investments.
I am not a certified financial planner, a certified financial analyst, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. The contents of this blog are for educational and entertainment purposes only, and do not constitute financial, investment, accounting, or legal advice. Please consult a lawyer, accountant, CPA, certified financial planner, or other need professionals, as needed, before making any investment, financial, or legal decisions. Do your own proper due diligence before making any investment, financial, and/or legal decisions. By reading and/or using this blog, or any post within it, you agree to hold me harmless of any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that happen as a result of acting on any of the information in this blog.
The views expressed in this blog are my own. The authors, speakers, or other sources I share or quote in this blog are those of the individuals, and my use does not mean they endorse my views and ideas. I consider myself an writer and amateur futurist, someone who studies and analyzes trends in economics, society, business, and other human endeavors. I express my opinions on how these trends and forces may play out in future months or years. I do my best to give what I see as the most likely future outcomes, but there are always many other factors which may change the course of events as we move forward in time. Please use your own best judgement, and that of experts you trust, to make any decisions regarding future business, investments, financial or other decisions.
Here's a heartwarming song about a girl who just wants to have fun, who dumps her boyfriend because she found a guy with more money. Cyndi Lauper, in classic 1980's New Wave/punk style, telling you the truth. Money changes everything.
Money can't buy you happiness. But poverty isn't the key to happiness either. Like it or not, whatever financial situation you were born into, a certain amount of money is necessary to live in today's world. Unless you want to live in the woods, in a homemade cabin, and grow, scavenge, or hunt all your food and supplies, and avoid all other people, you need money to line in today's world. The level of money needed to pay for the necessities of everyday life varies widely from person to person.
The irony of this blog is that I'm a guy who is currently homeless, yet I've spent much of my 58 years on this planet trying to understand how money works. On one hand, I've been struggling to earn a decent living since working as a taxi driver several years ago. I haven't been able to find a "real job" in the years since. At the same time, I see all kinds of amazing investment opportunities happening in the world these days, because of my 30+ years of watching financial markets, reading 200 or 300 books, and studying long term social and economic trends.
For at least 5 1/2 years, I've been blogging about a major economic crisis, potentially an actual great depression, that I believed was coming, starting around 2020. Ultra long term trends that I had been watching for more than 25 years pointed to a major economic downturn, and a lot of social turbulence and change in the 2020's. I hinted at these ideas in this post from January 2, 2018, and many times since. What I dramatically underestimated was The Fed and the U.S. government's resolve to prop up the U.S. economy, and keep the "next recession" from happening, after 2009.
On average, economic recessions happen every 4 to 7 years in the United States. Yet we haven't had a full recession since the Great Recession (aka Global Financial Crisis or GFC) of 2007-2009. With an unprecedented amount of fiscal and economic manipulation, we are now in year 15 of the usual 4 to 7 year cycle. That's not good. We're due for one hell of an economic downturn.
Yes, we did go into a major recession in early 2020, technically a short and deep depression, supposedly due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In reality, the pandemic amplified economic issues that were already happening, and made the whole situation much worse. But the economic response to the pandemic was so big, around $6 trillion in newly created money added to the U.S. economy, that the recession that started in February of 2020 was stopped dead in its tracks. The total U.S. money supply went up about 25%, which had never happened so quickly before. Suddenly money was everywhere, and nearly all of us became Stimulus Ballers, at least for a while, with extra money to spend on all kinds of stupid shit.
But now that money has drained out of the hands of everyday people, and that huge influx of money led to high inflation, higher prices on everyday items. That money also flowed into soaring asset prices, in stocks, crypto, homes in many pandemic boomtowns, and many other things.
But now, as I write this on August 7th, 2024, it appears that the recession is not only back, but the stock market has finally figured this out. Officially, we've probably been back in a recession since October or November of 2023. But the early stages of recession usually happen without most people even noticing. Many months into a recession, the unemployment rate starts to really go up, and stocks start to go down. It looks like we're finally at the point now, where the recession that tried to start in 2020 will finally play out, whether we want it to or not. Japan is in recession. Parts of Europe are in recession. China's enormous housing market is imploding, they're heading into serious economic problems and are slowing down. There doesn't seem to be any major part of the world economy that can surge at this point, and pull the rest of us out of recession.
That's bad news for most people. In recessions, major companies lay people off. Household incomes drop for many. The debts most people have racked up for student loans, homes, fancy cars, big trucks, and anything bought with credit cards, those debts turn quickly into anchors dragging people down. In recessions and depressions, most people struggle.
But these are also the times that many of the greatest opportunities come along to invest in all kinds of things, from Star Wars collectibles to stocks, to crypto, to houses. For more than five years now, I've been sharing ideas about this huge economic crisis I believed was coming, hoping that some people would check out these ideas, and not lose their retirement savings when the crisis hits. Over these years of blogging about what I call The Phoenix Great Depression, this oncoming economic crisis, I realized one thing. Most people don't give a flying fuck about a coming economic crisis. They just want to keep their daily lives going as the Titanic hits the iceberg and starts to sink. Let the band play on. Most people don't care until it's way too late. I'm one of the very few people who look ahead for these kinds of things. I knew I was an economic and futurist geek, but I'm far more weird than I thought. So I'm struggling to make a decent living again, while seeing this crazy scenario heading our way, that no one wants to hear about.
So in this blog, I'm not going to pontificate on this economic crisis, why I believe it's happening, or how it will play out. I'm just going to simply look at what I think are good, long term, buying opportunities for various investments and anything else that looks like a good deal. Short, sweet posts.
These are my ideas, based on everything I've learned about money, the markets, and economic trends, since I bought my first ounce of silver for $11, way back in 1980. Don't invest in anything because I think it's a good idea.If any of these ideas make some sense to you, do your own research, do your due diligence, consult any professionals you think might help, and then make your decision to invest or not. The next post will be a disclaimer, which will be linked to in future posts. Read it.
This blog is simply to point out things I think are a good deal to buy and hold for an extended period of time. I hope this may help some people find some ways to improve their lives in the future, in the ways that money can help. Money can't buy you happiness. But being broke or in debt isn't a good place to find happiness either.
I don't plan to monetize this blog in any way. There will be no affiliate links and no ads. I'm working on earning money with my writing and art in other ways. I don't plan to make a dime off of this blog. I'm putting these ideas about opportunities because I can make some pretty solid calls on a continuing basis, just to prove it's possible. Time will tell how they play out.
