I made a bad call on gold on August 12th

 Over a month ago, in my August 12, 2024 post, I said it was a good time to take profits in gold, for anyone who had bought some when it was below $2,000 per ounce (troy ounce) a couple of years ago, or if you were really smart and bought in late 2018 when gold was under $1,300 per ounce.  Gold was just over $2,500 when I made that call, August 12th, now it's around $2,620 per ounce. 

Disclaimer 

I still believe there will be a sizable drop in the price of gold once this recession really becomes apparent.  But I missed the peak.  I thought gold may drift up to maybe $2,550, then we'd see a drop before too long.  I do still believe in this basic scenario.  I believe we are in recession, and that it will become visible to everybody very soon.  I think we've been in a recession since about October or November of 2023.  Official recessions are never called while they are happening, the official designation happens many months, perhaps years, after a recession ends.  

Now, I doubt any of the 12 or 15 people who read that gold post actually acted on it.  If I had sold gold at $2,500 myself, having bought it at $1,285 to $1,950 an ounce, I wouldn't be worried at all.  That's a healthy profit, and I believe we will see gold well below $2,500 per ounce again, in late 2024, or the first few months of 2025.  But my call missed the peak, and gold may drift even higher before the drop I believe we will see.  

Again, anyone holding gold for the very long term, I said in that post not to sell.  Holding some gold over many years or decades is a smart move, overall.  

Again, you never lose money by taking profits, which was my call in gold on August 12th.  But, I misjudged the peak, and it may surge higher as we head into the readily visible stage of a recession.  I believe this will be a major recession, I've been writing about a coming great depression for over 4 years now, and I still believe that will be the case.  I still believe that the craziest days of this economic cycle are still to come, and there are many major issues, like widespread commercial real estate values, and historic levels of debt throughout society, still have to be worked out.